Back patting

Since I saw Thaicrisis give himself a pat on the back for some accurate forecasts this week, I though it might the time to do the same for myself. Hey, nobody else is going to do it!

1) The class war, it’s escalation and the fallout of the Thaksin feud was predicted by yours truly back on my old blog, which is now deleted.

2) The fallout of the constitutional referendum and predictions for the previous election were called by myself.

3) As you know, the end result of Thaksin’s Man City bid were called by me.

4) And I saw the judicial coup coming early on.

Admittedly, none of these evnts required a huge amount of astuteness.

It just goes to show: even a broken clock can be right twice a day :-)

Vindication of the stripes

I don't get a huge amount of interview requests - which is hardly surprising since I'm not a journalist or a celebrity - but the occasional offer does come up. This weekend though, I got two requests on the same day, which is a first. One was for an Australian radio station (via an old colleague) and the other was for a very well known international TV station.

To make the coincidences even more pleasant, both requests dropped in on the day that my 2007 prognostications of the fortunes of Mr Thaksin and Manchester City were more or less vindicated. When Thaksin first bought out MCFC, my article was plugged on the front page of 'The Nation'. Amongst the rebuttals came a bash from Matt Crook - probably the most popular blogger in Thailand at the time - who said it "makes perfect sense" for Thaksin to buy City. It didn't. It was a purely political move, and the decision to sell now is not related to the assets freeze - that happened before the purchase - but is in fact a face-saving gesture to avoid failing the "fit and proper person" test required by the FA for all majority shareholders.

Thaksin was never keen or knowledgeable about football. He once said he wanted the City fans "to treat me as one of them". Well Mr Thaksin, you failed that test, too. Fans never walk out on their club.

Back to Bangkok and the ongoing mess. I said recently that the scene was "eerily reminiscent of May 1992". Bangkok Pundit responded - I'm not sure if it was to me or someone else - by pointing out the lack of fatalities in the ongoing protests. In fact, when I said the new events were "reminiscent", I meant more in atmosphere than in violence. But of course, today saw the first fatality. I hope it is the last, but I fear not.

The flag

From The Nation:

Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama said Tuesday he would contact Manchester City Football Club to investigate how a Thai national flag bearing the name "Thaksin" was displayed at the club's stadium.

I'm no fan of Thaksin (maybe you heard?) but this should not be made into something it is not. It's a long standing football tradition for fans to put up flags as banners. Often that will be an English flag (the cross of Saint George) or a Union Jack or the national flag of the player or hero in question.

Fans like to express their allegiances. At England games, the fan flags will often have the name of the fan's local team written across the middle. This is particularly popular with supporters of smaller teams.

Otherwise the name of the team's star player will be written across the flag. Sometime fans go further with their merchandise. For example, during the nineties when Uwe Rosler was a star striker at Manchester City, City fans had T-shirts bearing the slogan "Uwe's grandparents bombed Old Trafford".

The three banded Thai flag (nation, religion, King) would certainly not be disrespected by City fans and surely expatriate Thais would be well aware of the consequences of such an action. It pains me to say it, but I think Noppadon is correct in saying this is the actions of westerners who simply did not realise there was a big cultural issue at stake.

Thaksin's perfect PR

Whether you like him or not (I don't) there can be no doubting that Thaksin Shiniwatra is one of the best media manipulators of all time. Should the telecommunications tycoon ever seek a new challenge, he could surely become a billionaire all over again as a PR consultant.

The publicity stunts are nothing new to him, of course. When Thaksin first came to power in 2002 and suddenly became charged by the NCCC for his "honest mistake" , the PM would actually arrive some distance from the courts and walk the rest of the way. This was so he could be mobbed by cheering supporters and accept their gifts before delivering one of his stirring populist speeches. In a country with judicial systems and checking bodies still being developed, it placed serious pressure on those who deliberated over his future. One judge admitted he had felt "heavily pressured".

Perhaps it was a learning experience for the PM, as he played the style of the benign victim extremely well whenever he came under pressure. During the class clashes of '06 Thaksin would frequently rally his supporters in the north with talk such as: "I want to supply a computer for every kid in school! Do you think that is cool?".

Still the best was saved for the international audience after the coup. In Jan 2007, as CNN cameras rolled, Mr Shiniwat sat looking almost like a school kid as he told the interviewer "I don't believe that this can happen again in the 21st century". The former leader has understandably never sounded his most confident when speaking English but there seemed to be extra shyness in his voice that day. Viewers must have felt great sorrow for him.

And finally of course, who could fail to be moved by the sight of the prodigal son kissing the ground in delight as he stepped on Thai soil yesterday? I guess he managed to hold his delight until the cameras could film him, or maybe the carpet of the VIP room at which the former fugitive was dropped off just didn't seem as tempting.

Yet the master stroke was still to come. Thaksin must have smiled to himself as he launched a 'coup' of his own, the ultimate PR stunt. Behind his entourage , immaculately suited, came Manchester City players Casper Schmeical and Kelvin Etuhu. The former may not be as legendary as his father, but the sight of EPL players was all that was required. They waved and smiled to the crowd who returned the compliment with cheers and shouts of delight. I swear, if you didn't know better you'd think it was an FA Cup victory parade. A perfectly crafted moment reached its pinnacle when the duo announced they had come: "to coach Thai children".

And who was the man responsible for this? Who did the duo describe as: " a good man who loves Thailand"? Why, the same man who the old elite want to charge with corruption! The message was lost on nobody.

Populism has been around as long as politics, but I wonder if anybody has ever quite embodied and epitomised it as well as Khun Thaksin. Whatever anybody thinks of his antics, his public relations finesse can never be denied. The only question is : does he put that genius to use for better or for worse?

I wonder if a certain senior statesman was so impressed with the show, and how much did it cost Mr Thaksin for that show to take place at all?

Thailand's Manchester trio

I'm a fan of the Thai national football squad. I first saw them live in the Beer Chang Tournament two years ago. I was impressed how the young squad held their own against the EPL teams. Their off the ball movement and overlapping play was strong. Of course though, we can never read too much into friendly games.

The next big match I watched was the second leg of the Singapore game. The squad and the Thai supporters really turned on the passion for that one, and it was gutting to see them lose.


But for all my support, I know the reality is that Thai football still has some way to go. The local league may have changed its name to include the "Premier League" moniker but the product still remains Sunday league standard.

This raises the inevitable question: why did Manchester City purchase three Thai players? No other club was watching them, no big deals had been offered, there was not even a scouting report to speak of. With great respect to the players, I don't think they would get into the Southampton Reserves on their own merit, let alone the Man City first team.

After all, the best players from Thailand seem to be headed for Vietnam right now, and the standard there is still low compared to the top world leagues.

The reality seems to be that football was not the priority in this transaction.


But still it's good for Thai football right? It raises the profile of Thai players, surely? Not really. Foreign players sitting in the reserves is nothing new for English fans. Once the news dies down, these three players could quickly be forgotten unless they work unexpected miracles. If raising the profile of the game in Thailand is a target, then why not spend that transfer money on Thailand's first football academy instead? Even if some parties moved to block the deal for political reasons, it could be funded by a proxy pr even as a charity.

That doesn't mean that some good can't come out of it. If the City board stay true to their word and build talent schools in Thailand, it could encourage a new standard of football in the Kingdom.And if those in power in Thailand are unhappy with politics being played out in football, perhaps they should do something to improve the local game instead of just paying lip service to the world's greatest sport.

Open letter to my MP regarding Thaksin

Dear Mr Denham,

I am a native of Southampton SO19 and now a long term resident of Thailand, where I have been working as a Social Studies teacher in a well known school for one year. I have voted Labour in the past two elections and, in fact, I plan to run for local election myself on my return.

Mr Denham, as a member of your constituency and also a member of a Thai family I would like to register my serious concern on the arrival and business transactions of Thaksin Shinwatra in England.

As you are no doubt aware, Thaksin was ousted in a bloodless coup last year. I am aware that Mr Shinwatra has referred to this undemocratic manoeuvre several times in the English press in an effort to assert his innocence. This is simply not the case.

Thaksin Shinwatra is currently under investigation by a non military, non partisan panel of investigators for numerous alleged acts of corruption involving himself and his family. Nearly all of these alleged offences were reported well before the coup took place. Prosecutors are currently assembling documentary, circumstantial and eyewitness evidence in preparation for a court hearing on several cases.

Mr Thaksin was also subject to a great number of complaints concerning human rights during his "War on drugs" campaign. During this time, a great number of deaths occurred in the country, many of them in highly suspicious circumstances. None of the deaths were investigated during Mr Thaksin's regime.

Finally, Mr Thaksin imposed great pressure on the free press during his tenure as PM. The country's only independent TV station was bought out by a Thaksin business with several critical reporters sacked. English language press came under threats and proxy take over bids, and many radio stations were closed down.


It is true that the prosecutions for corruption are coming indirectly from a non elected junta. However, many charges would have been made already if it were not for the fact that sections of the press, the senate, the judiciary and nearly every independent checking body had come under the influence of Mr Thaksin and his now defunct Thai Rak Thai party during his regime.

TheThai DSI has already confirmed that an extradition order will be made against Mr Thaksin if he does not arrive to hear charges within one month.

I would be happy to provide references to any of the above cited facts at your request.

As I type this, I am informed that AMLO has discovered several sizeable bank accounts in the name of Mr Thaksin in England. He has already been accused of - and denied - illegally channeling money out of Thailand.

Mr Denham, I understand that your right honourable friend David Taylor has already raised this issue in Parliament. As a Southampton Itchen constituent, I would humbly request that the issue of Mr Thaksin and his presence in England is raised again, with the question being : a) Is this truly the kind of guest we welcome in England? and b) Can we pledge to the authorities in Thailand that Mr Thaksin will be extradited if a formal request is made?

I thank you for your kind attention to this matter. Thank you for your work on behalf of the people of Southampton.


Yours sincerely ,

(name)

(UK address supplied)