Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Thaksin COULD return.......

Given that Samak and his PPP have finally set themselves up for a coalition government, it appears that amnesty for the one hundred and eleven banned Thai Rak Thai executives is coming soon.

Now here's an interesting point: the new constitution stipulates (part 9) that cabinet members cannot vote in house motions. So, if Samak uses his PPP members in a cabinet, his coalition is dangerously low on majority.

Can you see where this is going?

It is conceivable that Samak could form his cabinet entirely from former TRT execs!

How long would it take for the amnesty to take effect? A new senate must be appointed first (and may fight the move) but then, a new senate is needed to approve a new PM anyway.

Is it conceivable that Thaksin could come to the cabinet? He is under summons but has not been found guilty. (However, section 96 of the constitution does state that a minister cannot be appointed if he has had property confiscated by court for being unusally wealthy.)

How would opponents of the government - in all their guises - react to this? Could the military accept this slap in he face?

This is not a thought to be scoffed at. It makes perfect sense for Samak. He strengthens his coalition, increases his party's popularity, gains expertise and gives the proverbial finger to the military.

The controversy would be huge, surely? Could it happen?


Bangkok Pundit said...

Thaksin won't be a Minister anytime within the next year. I would say 4 years. I can't see an amnesty happening within 6 months either. More likely after 12 months.

If I am wrong about Thaksin, I will post on how great Southampton are :) It might be a short post though.

Red and White said...

I will post on how great Southampton are

I'm not sure even you can pull that off :-)

I would bet on Thaksin at least professing to want a minister's post within eighteen months. Perhaps even one year.

Chickin said...

How about the controversy of the military, back by you know who, threw out a democratically elected official. Thaksin was the ONLY PM ever to be re-elected, he enjoyed the largest majority ever won by any political party (three times!). He has won again!, not a majority win, but awfully damned impressive considering who was obviously against him. Did Thaksin have some flaws? Was he greedy? Maybe. But you don't have to look too awful far to see that Thai greed runs from the bottom to the top. Stop reading Thai newspapers, it is 100% propaganda (especially the Thai language versions). Start looking at economic indicators, and other quantifiable aspects of Thai society and government.

Red and White said...

Actually Chikin I already did that here and here