Friday, November 28, 2008

Countdown to civil war

Bangkok Pundit recently rated the chance of a coup at five percent. I'd say that percentage is higher and increasing by the moment. (NB Pundit has mentioned to me that he was talking about the chances of what will happen next, he expects that the chance of a coup at some point is actually higher.)

Somchai is effectively exiled in Chang Mai. In Thailand - even more so than other countries - a leader outside the capital is greatly weakened.

The refusal of the army to deal with the seizure of the airport - the heart of Thailand's main industry - is incredible. The pledge to use the navy and air force instead even more so. No greater symbol of the polarisation of the Thai establishment could be imagined.

Nobody has absolute control or power. Nobody seems sure of a solution. A dissolved parliament will lead to re-election of the PAD's (and other people's) enemies. Dissolution of the PPP will result in a new party being formed and Thaksin's rage increased further. A coup brings the nation to rock bottom but at least returns control to one entity.

Next week is the birthday of His Majesty The King. His Majesty traditionally uses the occasion to deliver a speech that often contains guidance and wisdom for Thai people. This year, as ever, people will listen with great interest.


Ad said...

Explain please sir why your title is 'countdown to civil war' . . .

Would a Thai kill another Thai to defend Thaksin/Samak/Somchai? The paid Reds would - - - maybe if paid enough . . .

Would the majority of Thais willingly die to defend their King?

No contest.

hobby said...

Re: Killing: You assume people are sensible - IMO, based on what we have seen to date, that's a very BIG assumption!

Re: Willing to Die: To defend what?

Ad said...

Hello Hobby and let me see if I can form a coherent reply. My inadequate knowledge of history suggests that over the ages people have killed and died for causes they believed to be either spiritually (crusades b/s) or pecuniarily (the mercenaries) rewarding. The spiritual cause is more subtle than real and for that reason much more powerful & long-lasting (think of Muslim extremism and maybe a scale or three down below the Thai PADs). The pecuniary cause is non-abstract
but provides immediate rewards but short-term results . . and I would put the Thai Reds in this category.

Much obliged to enlighten and I've noticed you and Vichai N no longer engage the Reds over at New Mandala.