That time of year

Well I thought this year I would be too busy to post my traditional Christmas blog. After all, I was working until 3pm today. Oh OK, not actually working but taking part in the school's day of fun involving games for the little ones and a concert for the older kids, by the older kids. Some of them were damn good, too.

And to answer my good man Vertigo, Santa is not dead - I saw him today and last week - and he does appear to Buddhist children, at least a big portion of them.

My family always have a traditional Christmas. It's gift exchanges in the morning, followed by a big slap up lunch, then a movie with an optional nap and finally drinks and cards in the evening. Then Boxing Day was the time Dad and I would go and watch some team stuff us four or five nil.

Like many expats, Christmas is the time when I miss my family and friends back home the most. Still, at least Thai people get into the spirit a bit and we have traditional pubs and festivities going on. This year though, with my son running up a big private hospital bill - though he seems to be getting better slowly, which is what counts - and the airport hijack affecting my wife's business, we'll be keeping it lean. Never mind, younger kids don't worry about ipods or cars, they just enjoy the fun and appreciate what they get.

What will lie ahead in 2009? Well for me there will be another addition to the family. It's an exciting time, but I'll also be keeping focused on my long term plans for business and life.

For Thailand, I am mildly optimistic that as long as Aphisit can hold on for six months, he can bring some stability to the LOS and return some unity. For the UK and Thailand, the credit crunch aftershock will really be felt next year. Let's just pray none of us are causalities. That's really all we can do about that.

Enough waffle. Merry Christmas to all readers, bloggers, red shirts, yellow shirts, farangs, Thais, conservatives, leftists and Saints fans. But not Spurs fans.

I'll leave you with a message from my Saturday class. I hope the poor sound quality will not hinder its spirit.

What happens next?

It can come as no surprise that the red shirts plan to rally at Sanam Luang, what is crucial here though is that it puts the army and police in a very delicate situation.

If the rally turns even remotely violent then the police or military have two choices: first, they respond with force. This will play into the hands of the reds' leaders, who can then expose the double standards of the authorities. This will further expose and pressurise the people behind them, all the while raising the indignation of not just the reds but also neutral observers.

Option two is to do nothing again. This will simply cripple the new government just like the old one, and also make people wonder just what the heck the military and police need such a huge budget for, if they do absolutely nothing. We would all hope the reds make a peaceful, democratic protest, but given their anger this may be asking a lot.

Is there anyway out of this predicament?

As an interesting aside it appears that UK politics and Thai politics are forming some friendships. PAD figures apparently met with a Liberal Democrat MP last month and Aphisit is a good friend of eccentric London Mayor and prominent Conservative member Boris Johnson. (h/t to Bangkok Pundit and Thai politico for these facts). Here is a clip of Boris at his best.

What happens next?

It can come as no surprise that the red shirts plan to rally at Sanam Luang, what is crucial here though is that it puts the army and police in a very delicate situation.

If the rally turns even remotely violent then the police or military have two choices: first, they respond with force. This will play into the hands of the reds' leaders, who can then expose the double standards of the authorities. This will further expose and pressurise the people behind them, all the while raising the indignation of not just the reds but also neutral observers.

Option two is to do nothing again. This will simply cripple the new government just like the old one, and also make people wonder just what the heck the military and police need such a huge budget for, if they do absolutely nothing.

We would all hope the reds make a peaceful, democratic protest, but given their anger this may be asking a lot.


Is there anyway out of this predicament?

What happens next?

It can come as no surprise that the red shirts plan to rally at Sanam Luang, what is crucial here though is that it puts the army and police in a very delicate situation.

If the rally turns even remotely violent then the police or military have two choices: first, they respond with force. This will play into the hands of the reds' leaders, who can then expose the double standards of the authorities. This will further expose and pressurise the people behind them, all the while raising the indignation of not just the reds but also neutral observers.

Option two is to do nothing again. This will simply cripple the new government just like the old one, and also make people wonder just what the heck the military and police need such a huge budget for, if they do absolutely nothing.

We would all hope the reds make a peaceful, democratic protest, but given their anger this may be asking a lot.


Is there anyway out of this predicament?

What happens next?

It can come as no surprise that the red shirts plan to rally at Sanam Luang, what is crucial here though is that it puts the army and police in a very delicate situation.

If the rally turns even remotely violent then the police or military have two choices: first, they respond with force. This will play into the hands of the reds' leaders, who can then expose the double standards of the authorities. This will further expose and pressurise the people behind them, all the while raising the indignation of not just the reds but also neutral observers.

Option two is to do nothing again. This will simply cripple the new government just like the old one, and also make people wonder just what the heck the military and police need such a huge budget for, if they do absolutely nothing.

We would all hope the reds make a peaceful, democratic protest, but given their anger this may be asking a lot.


Is there anyway out of this predicament?

Abhisit Vejjajiva: the new PM

Congratulations to Aphisit on becoming PM but the victory may yet be a pyrrhic one. It came via a judicial coup and an alliance with the very sort of politician Aphisit must purge if he wants to keep his promise of ending the "culture of corruption". The international perspective of Thai democracy has also suffered a setback.

I'm going to write a review of the year and some predictions for 2009, but for now let's just be glad we have a leader who isn't vile.

In other news......

I have not much to say on the banned article (as in, that edition is not sold in Thailand) except that the whole saga speaks for itself. My only further observation is that the article was banned first and then responded to (with extremely poor arguments) several days later. Priorities are as usual, then.

Thaksin's phone in last night proved to be a bit of a nonevent. Even The Nation wrote so little on it that they managed just one single spelling mistake. Thaksin informed us that the army and the courts - the people who happened to find him guilty of corruption - are interfering with democracy. It's interesting to note that most of Thaksin's speeches, the words "against democracy" or anything similar could be substituted for "have found me guilty of corruption". Still, fair play to the reds. Somebody has to keep the anti-democratic military on their toes.

The sort of people involved in Thai politics pt.6

"I regret that I had supported a wrong person. Now I am well aware that he is the one who has corrupted throughout his term,"
February 2006

"Since I was born, I've never seen anyone who is as untrustworthy as Thaksin"
August 2006

"I think I can ask him not to phone in if I am on this mission"
December 2008

Snoh (also called 'Sanoh') Thientong is a petulant child, even by the standards of Thai politicians.

This old school, godfather type politician has always been the type who is low on any ideology or policies - apart from providing a few bits of scenery for his own province - and high on histrionics and argumentative rhetoric.

Snoh was a key supporter of Thaksin in the early days until he suddenly decided that Thaksin had not given him an important enough post (chief whip). Suddenly, Snoh felt enraged and made a string of public declarations that "who stays on as Prime Minister depends on me".

Thaksin ignored the dummy throwing and continued, so Snoh become more and more outspoken, eventually becoming an outright rebel. He assisted university students as a witness in a mock trial of Thaksin Shiniwatra. He even appeared on a PAD stage in the first wave of protests.

After the coup, Snoh formed his own party. There he bored the pants off of everyone by rambling for two hours - he didn't stop, he had to be "accidentally interrupted" in classic Thai style. Snoh lamented about Thaksin's corruption and claimed he had never been involved in a scandal in his whole career.

This could be partly due to the fact that Snoh, like Banharn, has such influence in his province. Still, it seems he forgot the saga of the Alpine Golf Club. In brief: in 1990 Interior Minister Snoh transferred land that had been donated to a temple to a foundation, the foundation sold the land the same day to a company in which Snoh's wife and brother were major partners. It was later made into a golf club.

And now in 2008, with The Democrats looking to take leadership in the house and Snoh's small coalition party looking stuck without gain, our main man has suddenly become obsessively interested in a 'unity government' with a 'small party leader as PM'.

Now I just can't figure out what he could possibly be getting at with that idea, can anyone shed some light? Sadly, his high profile dinner party to show his importance in the matter didn't go to plan.

Snoh apparently decided that his past feud with Thaksin meant nothing and loudly proclaimed: "I can ask to stop Thaksin's phone in the Saturday". Indeed, Thaksin's live phone was prevented, though it seems Thientong had little to do with it. If I didn't know better, I'd say Snoh knew the live phone in wouldn't happen and decided to preempt the credit for it, in a desperate bid to revive his image as a man of influence.

But, surely a man so interested in a 'unity government' wouldn't do such a thing.

The ultimate question: how would YOU make things better?

We've all had something to say these last couple of months. Lalidah said it best: blogs have been coming in like bullets from a machine gun.

It's human nature that we are quicker to criticise than praise, better at asking questions than offering answers. But let's try and turn the tide. Let me give you this totally hypothetical scenario:

By some freak of nature, you become the appointed soul who has to solve Thailand's political mess. You can introduce any reform you like within reason. What would you do?

I would dissolve both houses immediately. They have clearly become dysfunctional battlegrounds of self interest and seem acceptable to nobody. I would call new elections with UN and local observers invited.

I would change the elected/appointed ratio in the senate from 51/49 to 70/30. This ratio represents a genuinely democratic house with just enough appointees to reduce danger of any faction in the lower house from controlling the senate as happened under the TRT government.

I'd push through with Suryaud's failed promise of police reform. (In reality this would be tough).

I'd write a new constitution. Yes, another one! Why bother? Because the 1997 constitution had some great elements to it. The new one dropped some of those elements but introduced some others. I'd also set up a constitutional advisory panel with genuine influence. In that panel I'd include representatives from the PAD, the UDAD and other demographs, perhaps even a NWL blogger!

I'd strongly recommend that the new constitution clearly defined the armed forces as being segregated from politics and any coup as illegal. I'd also clearly define the role of other institutions. Moreover, I'd strongly suggest greater focus on free speech in the constitution because I feel that could alleviate tensions in Thailand.

I'd also seek expert advice on possible reform of the judicial appointments system.

I'd set up two public bodies. The first would be a project aimed at real national reconciliation - not in the fake sense politicians mean when they say those words. The project could include collaborations between the Bangkok community and rural communities.

The second project would aim at forming a federal system for Thailand's economy. This would take a lot of costly work, but I'm sure it would provide massive long term benefits.

Finally, I'd suggest a series of public referenda. Possible votes could include a chief of police, parliamentary reform, etc.

So that's my imaginary work done. Now how about you?

Are Thailand's Chinese the Jewish of the east?

Obviously, with a wife and son with Chinese blood, the post is meant to be provocative rather than offensive. I use the term "Jewish" rather than "Jew" because the latter can be considered anti-Semitic.

It cannot escape notice that nearly all the key business and political offices in Thailand belong to those of recent (as opposed to the theory that all Thais are Chinese descendents). Chinese descent. As far as I can see, at least four of the last six PM's have been Chinese, along with most of their cabinet. Whenever read the business pages, the CEIO profiles nearly always feature a smiling Chinese person.

This trend continues downwards. My last school was a government school. A disproportionate number of my best students were Chinese. My current employer is an expensive private school. The majority of students are ethnic Chinese.

There was a time when ethnic Chinese were looked upo with disdain by the upper class. Those days are gone. It seems the Chinese are the upper class.

Why is this? And what do ethnic Thais think or feel about it? I asked my wife why this is so and she told me simply: "Chinese people work hard." short answer, but quite possibly the whole truth?



In the west, the Jewish community are considered to hold a number of key business and political posts which increase the lobbying power of the Jewish community. There are some conspiracy theories concerning the Jewish groups but most people acknowledge those theories as abhorrent, which they are. (Some sections of the Jewish lobby are also unpleasant and often undemocratic but that's a different blog). After all, every ethnic group seeks to wield as much power as possible. That's just natural. I know a few Jewish people and they are friendly, everyday people like the rest of us.

Further reading:
http://asiarecipe.com/thaiciin.html
http://countrystudies.us/thailand/48.htm

Where are Thailand's great political teachers?

Because I teach Social Studies, and because I rant about education, it's understandable that friends and colleagues sometimes joke about me being some kind of "revolutionary" or "Marxist" teacher. My reply to the first charge is "I wish I was good enough" my reply to the second "I'm conservative".

Seriously, it would be most dangerous and inappropriate for any foreign teacher to knock the status quo in Thailand. Surely the American fiasco in Iraq has reminded us that any real changes have to born from within before outsiders can even lend a hand. I'll admit, in my old post were I was a lot closer to the students than my current job, I did have frank discussions with them. I taught about the dangers of credit cards, the importance of never being scared to ask questions and the importance of a sceptical approach to any political system. It went down very well, but I don't think I could ever repeat that performance.

My current job is not such a challenge because I teach about the political systems rather than the political people. This is easy because the system we have in Thailand - a bicameral, constitutional monarchy - is actually a good one. The problem is the people within the House of Representatives and their cronies, but I steer well clear and do not let my own opinions influence my teaching. Sometimes kids do ask me though.

So it boils down to the same old conclusion - we need better people in politics and better education for the next generation to understand them, but where is it coming from? Whoa re eh truly great political teachers in Thailand? It seems that many former TRT members have turned to teaching, is this a good thing? I don't think so.

I know Giles Unpagkorn is a Marxist but at least he fights for free speech and transparency. Who else do we have? Can anyone tell us who is molding the minds of Thailand's young to make things better?

Where are the inspirers? Where are the geniuses? Where are the men and women who make the student so full of will that they want to do like Mr Beale in 'The Network' and yell "I'm not going to take this anymore!".

Aphisit gets his chance.

Before we address any concerns, let's get something straight: Aphisit is the best choice for Thai PM. The alternatives are the father of Duang, a guy who makes even your average politician look honest, or a guy who messed up twice before. (The last choice is an interesting aside: why do so many Thais seem fixate on politicians who were utterly useless in their prime, let alone declining years?)

Aphisit is progressive, clean, focused and confident. Yet despite that confidence, people still ask questions about his potential to steer the ship in a storm. That's a pretty big criticism because let's face it - Thailand is in a political whirlpool right now.

Questions also hang over his independence from the PAD and resistance to influence from senior statesmen. Moreover, it looks as if we have arrived at the right answer for the wrong reasons. Aphisit is not here because he was the popular choice, he was here because the judicial coup left the door open for him. The defectors who changed sides did so only because they knew that sticking with PPP/Phua Thai would just result in another court case.

So I wholeheartedly wish "Mark" the best of luck. He's a good guy and the right man for the job, but he has a lot of doubters to convince and he needs to prove his mettle.

I'd liken Aphisit's position to a football manager taking over a team at the bottom of the table with a few games left. He needs to turn things around and fast but the pressure is on. The odd good result is not enough, the country needs a long streak of victories to restore confidence. It won't be easy.

I understand that His Majesty The King was unable to deliver his traditional speech due to illness. From what I can understand, the traditional speech was delivered by the Crown Prince.

I can't follow if the speech was written by His Majesty or His Highness, perhaps another blogger can let me know.

I hope the king makes a full and speedy recovery.

link

Chalerm for PM?

So Chalerm is tipped to be the next PM? Is that going to help the country? Chalerm is, of course, the father of this man.

Read the article. By the way, he was found not guilty.

Back patting

Since I saw Thaicrisis give himself a pat on the back for some accurate forecasts this week, I though it might the time to do the same for myself. Hey, nobody else is going to do it!

1) The class war, it’s escalation and the fallout of the Thaksin feud was predicted by yours truly back on my old blog, which is now deleted.

2) The fallout of the constitutional referendum and predictions for the previous election were called by myself.

3) As you know, the end result of Thaksin’s Man City bid were called by me.

4) And I saw the judicial coup coming early on.

Admittedly, none of these evnts required a huge amount of astuteness.

It just goes to show: even a broken clock can be right twice a day :-)

A few interesting comments from Thaksin's Dubai (ArabianBusiness.com) interview:

"Do you know how many countries there are in the world? There are 197. And only 17 have an extradition treaty with Thailand," he notes with a thin smile. "Better still, only 10 of those treaties are active. So, don't you worry about me, I still have many places to stay."

_________________

"With me at the helm I can bring confidence quickly back to Thailand, and that is why we have to find a mechanism under which I can go back into politics."

What does his wife think about this? "She has divorced me," he responds, bluntly - end of subject."

_________________

"He admits that going back now would be too risky, but insists that "time is on my side"."

"But could he really be PM again? Shinawatra is adamant that it could happen.

"The coup is still there - it has been transformed from a military coup to a judicial coup," he explains."

__________________

"I don't care, though - I thank them [The UK] because I went there, I bought a football club then sold it and made some money in the process," he says. "They gave me a place to stay, even though it was short-term. My children went to school there.

One day, they will understand better, and they will feel sorrow for what they have done because they have not respected their own democratic values."

______________

"I cannot live in my own country. There were many assassination attempts, and my family has been broken up because we all have to live in different countries. I regret the result, but not what I have done. You see, I love the Thai people."

________________

In fairness, his swipe at the UK was not reported with 100% accuracy by The Nation.

Also, it may not be wise for me to make a link but New Mandala has a very interesting article right now.

This is the news you will read in the next few days:


1) The Constitution Court will dissolve the PPP party, meaning a new election must be held. The PPP and UDAD will be furious but will not demonstrate because they do not wish to do so during the celebration of His Majesty's birthday.

2) The PAD will hail it as a victory and disperse from the airport, citing that they wish to respect His Majesty's birthday.

There is one other prediction I would like to make but I cannot.

In future, more Thaksin proxies will be elected and the struggle will continue.