Reforming Thailand's Politics: an evening at the FCCT

The FCCT event was entitled "Reforming Thailand's Politics".

Before the night started, I overheard a discussion involving a colleague of Jonathon Head and discussing the recent charges against him. As it was personal, I will not discuss the conversation but it made me feel very sad for a number of reasons.


The night started with JH introducing the speakers:

- Kasit Piromya, former Ambassador to Washington and Tokyo, and now a supporter of the People's Alliance for Democracy. Also a Democrat shadow cabinet minister.

- Korn Chatikavanij, Deputy Leader of the Democrat Party

- Chris Baker, author and lecturer on Thai politics


JH invited each speaker to discuss their views on the PAD and the proposals for new Thai politics.

(My usual disclaimer and a note: I am not a journalist, I can't do freehand. For the sake of clarity I have paraphrased and edited out less interesting parts of the discussions. Also note that tonight's forum was particularly unfocused and verbose at times from both the speaker's and the questioner's sides. If speakers seem to jump from topic to topic and be a little disjointed, it's not just my editing to blame, that's how it happened)


Kasit: "I'm impressed that so many Americans are here supporting democracy. After all, their own government can design a totally fake war and keep it going while their economy collapses as their regulators look the other way." (Murmurs from the audience).

"We would like to see a Thai model based on the Finnish model of politics or even the Chinese or South Korean models. The Democrats are the closest we have in Thailand."

"New politics is coming to Thailand and everyone should be represented, including hill tribes, disabled people, poor people and others."

"Some of our ideas for new politics include the concept that anyone can take a complaint to court without having to go through police or other civil servants. There should be complete press freedom in a similar style to the German model, however the monarchy is above politics and should never be discussed negatively."

[How can he advocate both 'total' press freedom and having a monarchy above politics?]

"Police chiefs should be regionally elected and under the jurisdiction of a local governor.The Ministry of Interior would be downsized. De-centralisation would be made more powerful under new politics."

"All parties and their candidates must sign a code of conduct agreement. They must promise their candidates try to control local mafia bosses and serve the people. Any breech of the COC would result in automatic disqualification for the candidate without the need to wait for a court decision."



Korn Chatikavanij: "The Democrats have come under pressure especially here [at the FCCT] for allegedly not being vocally opposed to the coup. Some people have suggested that the PAD are undemocratic purely because they took Government House. I think this view is narrow minded."

"I believe there is a consensus that change is needed in Thai politics.. The PAD's 70/30 proposals [that politicians should be 70% selected by an official body and 30% elected by popular vote] seemed unpopular, now they have a 50/50 proposal, I wouldn't necessarily oppose this."

"My party want both the lower and upper houses to be one hundred percent elected. I personally oppose this. If both houses are fully elected, you will get the same type of people in both houses. Often they will be related, literally. I would like the upper house to be scrapped. I understand there is debate on this in the UK, and nobody accuses them of being undemocratic."

[I think he's referring to a debate on upper house reform in the UK, I'm not aware of any debate for upper house abolishment, which would be a terrible idea].

"Compromises on the electoral system can happen and don't have to be undemocratic, it could help democracy by pushing a free press, etc."



Chris Baker: "Kasit makes 'new Politics' seem so exciting,but I want to know: how do we establish the legitimacy of all this? Moves such as scrapping the MOI are big moves, how do we give authority to such a move?"

"The other speakers talk of a consensus, we all know there are very few consensuses in Thailand right now. The opposition against 'one man one vote' (OMOV) is nothing new, it is an old idea. We should also be careful when discussing 'middle class' , it is hard to define 'middle class' in Thailand.

"These days, people are more politically educated thanks to moves by the Chuan government and TV. "

[I disagree with him there]

"Some people either don't understand or fear the growth of a mass electorate. Vote buying does not explain why people get elected. People do consider the candidate. Buying politicians is a far bigger problem than buying votes, and Thaksin massively increased the budget for buying politicians."

"A genuine crises is coming. In the past we had The Democrats as a reasonably liberal party on one side, on the other side we had the old 'godfather' parties. There was a real difference in ideology. Then came Thaksin with a philosophy of 'me as leader and no need for human rights , democracy or opposition' etc. This idea did have some appeal. The Democrats' response to this new philosophy is to support a group that - however much they talk of democracy - really boil down to hitting people with golf clubs. I think that is sad."


Kasit responds: "As a democrat, I feel the change in political culture is a moral response to Thaksin and his methods. I have been talking to many people about this. I note 60 - 70% of PAD activists are women. This could be because they have a more moral grounding against behaviour such as that of Chalerm Yobramrung and Samak's verbal abuses. This is about morality."


JH - Korn, why can't Democrats get more votes in the north east?

Korn - "I could talk about that all day. Northerners are less politically active and money politics is more prevalent there, and we have less money than the PPP. However I agree with Chris, money is the price you pay to play the game but it doesn't decide if you win or lose. In some areas Puea Pandin outspend PPP by three to one and still lose. "

"Our predicament is this: do we leave the system as it is and hope that it will improve and evolve as many people believe [including me] or do we reform it? I'm a pragmatist, I support the later idea but I don't support removing anyone's vote." (Whoever said you did, Korn?)




Floor opens for questions.

Question 1 - (Pravit, The Nation):

Why did the PAD make the 70/30 proposal? Second question - could Kasit be accused of being a Democrat proxy or nominee for the PAD?

Kasit: 70/30 idea was floated simply to get a reaction and spark debate. I've always been open about my dual roles. I never mention The Democrats when I'm with PAD.

I used to be Thaksin's ambassador in Tokyo. During that time many Japanese companies complained to me about corruption at Suvarnabhumi Airport. I sent many letters to Thaksin but they were all ignored.

That's why I fell out of friendship with him and joined the PAD.


Question two - Chris Baker, do you think The Democrats have not been firm enough about their democratic values during the political upheaval?

Chris - I agree, I don't like people suggesting the Chinese government has a 'democratic model'.

Korn responds: We will not back away from OMOV. The reason why so many Democrat supporters also support the PAD is due to frustration. they have tried to stick with Democrats and get reform but they cannot. So they take to the streets to make their point more directly. We ourselves are still here, supporting democracy.


Question three - What are your thoughts on north eastern politics, especially in relation to Udon [Thani]?

Kasit - The incident [of fighting between pro government and pro PAD factions] at Udon was not from real Udon people. The [pro government] people came from Bangkok and were trained near a military base. They were paid.


Question four - I was shocked to see Chamlong suggest disenfranchising seventy percent of the people that he fought so hard to protect in 1992. I want to suggest a more powerful senate with regional representatives that can control the government's budget.


Korn - But how can you complain about disenfranchisement and then support a more powerful unelected upper house?


JH - What about a more powerful elected senate?

Korn - We are discussing this. We also like the idea of an EU style regional assembly.


Question five - Chris, do you see the military as the ruling force in Thai politics for the foreseeable future? Do you believe Anupong [ the general who says there will be no coup]?

Chris - You can never rule out another coup, but right now the army are at a low point due to their poor government. They have low political capital right now so there should be no more coups at least for now.

JH- Kasit, do you support the PAD's call for more military involvement in politics?

Kasit - The military believe themselves to be guardians of democracy and Thai values. We can't reconcile that with true democracy, though.


Question six - [introduces herself as a "trained lawyer". Why is it that whenever someone introduces themselves as a 'trained lawyer' or something similar, my BS detector starts going off?]

I can't accept the criticism of the US made earlier, the PAD have timed major events to coincide with SET crashes. Why are they working outside the system?

Kasit - We don't have the sophistication to work in tune with the SET, only Sonthi worries about the SET.

follow up - Concerning your idea every complaint can go to court, how do you legitimise this? Wouldn't the court get clogged up?

Kasit - It's just an idea at this stage. People feel helpless because true complaints are purposely blocked by bureaucracy. People feel angry and hurt.


Question seven: (Andrew Burke) You have discussed making politicians up from professional associations, etc. how would you choose them?

Kasit - We are undecided. It could depend on how much tax they pay, for example. (gasps from the audience)

follow up - So you are saying the richer people get to choose more politicians?

Kasit - It's just an idea, we need to do more research

follow up - But you have so many ideas, don't you need to explain some of them?

Kasit - In time we will, now they are just proposals.


Question eight - (Mirakim, North Korean reporter for South Korea.)

[She starts with a strange set of comments including the statement: "There are only three countries in the world without a constitution - UK, Israel and New Zealand" which is totally wrong]

Can we get Thaksin back to court in Thailand?

Kasit - The government are scared to do so, Somchai is his brother in law. To extradite, we need to send an official letter to the UK. This letter has not been sent.



There are further questions but I'm tired out. The night was interesting, if uninspiring. All parties seemed slightly unfocused. Kasit had some nice ideas but no substance behind them, Chris took a role as "critique" of the other two so couldn't offer a lot things we hadn't heard before, but I was particularly unimpressed with Korn. Not only did he have little to offer but his duplicity was remarkable. Throughout the night he displayed clear support for the PAD and their proposals, but also tried to walk the Democrat's official line without ever being honest about where he stood.

Lese Majeste

Following on from the news that Jakrapob Penkair would be investigated for Lese Majeste for comments made at the FCCT in mid 2007 is the news that BBC's Jonathon Head would be investigated for possible Lese Majese for comments made during the "Coup, Capital, Crown" presentation, also at the FCCT last year.

It must be stressed that this is only at the complaint stage, not a formal charge.

The BBC are not a minor play on the global stage and it would be interesting to see how they respond if the complaint is taken further.

Taking Thailand forward: Abhisit at the FCCT

Abhisit Vejajiva began late at the FCCT, stating that he had lost his voice but was lucky to be alive after his car crash yesterday.

"Thai people have faced hardship for the last three years due to bad economic practices. People lost their voice after the coup"

"Samak puts politics first and people second. Debate is important not for us or PPP but for the people. Samak has refused every offer of a debate"

Abhisit enquires whether Samak was invited to the FCCT. MC Jonathon Head says he was, but was unable to attend so he is now serving food fro the kitchen tonight (laughter).


"The Democrats have a ninety nine day plan, it is not a gimmick. It includes polices such as free education all through school, an end to corruption and reversal of confusing policies for foreign investors"


"We will happily form a coalition with anyone.....(pause) ......except the PPP" [laughter]


Questions:

1) Have there been any kind of deals or agreements between the Democrats and the military?

AV: No. Why would the Dems spend so much money on pre coup elections if they knew what would happen? Why do the PPP/TRT suddenly become so in love with democracy when they have lost power?



2) [A foreign election monitor volunteer] There are allegations of vote rigging by the CNS in Chang Mai

AV: Report it to the EC. However, these elections are fairer than 2005.



3) Why are parties putting politics before people?

AV: The party hopping mentality is to blame. Nobody can take politics seriously when people move freely between parties. There are some encouraging signs that this mentality is changing.



4) (The Nation) What do you think about the undemocratic aspects of the constitution and security laws?

AV: I have pushed for amendments in the past and I wish to remove undemocratic aspects of the new constitution such as half the senate being unelected. I hope the NLA don't pass the security law. My message to the NLA is "take a break".

If they do pass the law, I have four issues to raise including a definition of ""threat to security" (a reference to part of the new law which gives emergency powers to the military at any time of "threat to national security").

The military have learned a lesson, now they know seizing power was the easy part of the job.



5) (UN representative) We need a debate on human rights. Will the Dems check on human rights abuses in the south?

AV: There was a debate on human rights a few weeks ago by the Human Rights Commission of Thailand. All party leaders were invited, I was the only attendant.

The troubles in the south are complex. The old hierarchy in the south is no more. The old leaders do not have a vertical line of command. We will encourage dialogue but it is a local problem, we have extensive plans to resolve issues in the south.



6) (Bangkok Post) Polls show a swing to PPP. Will heads roll if the Dems don't get in? If you get in, what are the first three issues you will tackle?

AV: I advise Bangkok Post not to do internet polls [laughter]. There is a group of full time political operatives on the sixth floor of a building in Wangtonla who are hired by a certain party.

We have set standards in the party, I expect those standards to be met.

The first three issues I will tackle are economic confidence, reducing the cost of living and stimulating the economy.



7) Are there family ties between the Shinwatras and the Vejajivas?

AV: Thaksin's mother in law made this claim [that there were links between the families about three generations ago] but I have checked and there are no blood ties.



8) (A Thai teacher) We are not happy about the situation with universities being pushed to become autonomous.

AV: My colleague Wijit supports this motion. I disagree with him. However, autonomy is not the same as privatisation.



9) What is the meaning of the Democrat logo? [A woman washing her long hair]

AV: It is a goddess, we like to think she is washing out political dirt [laughter].



10) Would you form a coalition even if the PPP win a clear majority? When will we know the shape of the government?

AV: If PPP win outright, we will work hard as the opposition. If not, we will form a coalition.

We should see shape of government by Sunday evening, if there are issues with red cards, etc. it could take thirty days. There is a quorum but it is not a full house quorum.



11) What will you do to sway those who are still undecided?

The indecision is due to political noise. I believe the undecideds will focus on the real issues when voting.


12) (Jonathon Head) What is your stance on privatisation?

AV:The privatisation of EGAT and PTT by Thai Rak Thai was illegal.This has spoiled a policy that can benefit the nation. Thailand has underutilised assets.



13) (Japanese press) Why do so many rural folk still go for TRT/PPP and Thaksin after eighteen months? Why have the Dems not reached out to these people?

AV: They have sympathies with the one hundred and eleven TRT execs who are banned. I have sympathy with some of them as they didn't know what was going on with the crimes committed.

Apart from the south, we had just fourteen seats in the previous house, now we are very competitive. This shows we have made gains.



14) Would you consider autonomy for Pattiani under any circumstances? Previous coalitions have always been weak, can you be sure yours won't crumble?

AV: Our research and that of the investigative group led by Anand has the same conclusion: autonomy is not a demand from people in the south. What they want is justice, including corrections to past injustices. Autonomy for Pattiani would not help other states. De-centralisation is the key.

Previous coalitions were corrupt and/or incompetent. We will not be. A good government cannot be toppled.



15) What is your stance on the PPP using Thaksin's image and name? If the PPP was dissolved for electoral malpractice, what would your stance be?

AV: PPP candidates have every right to use Thaksin's image and name, however they [the 111 dissolved TRT execs] should not interfere with the running of PPP.

I hope the EC will not destabilise politics by any bias actions. I don't believe PPP will be dissolved.



16) [Narcissus] What is your position on Burma? Should ASEAN do more?

AV:I am appalled by the actions of the junta in Burma. ASEAN should do more but they should take careful actions.


17) There is too much rubbish in the Bangkok canals!

AV: I'll tell Apirak! [Laughter]. It's not as bad as it used to be and I will get the council to do more.



18) Is there a political ideology for the labor movement in Thailand? Do the Dems have a separate section to deal with this?

AV: No labor focused ideologies really exist in Thailand. Some attempts to set up a labor party have failed. Dems take a balanced approach between labor and service sector approaches.


19) The new constitution has strengthened the opposition to prevent another TRT style government stranglehold. Will this weaken a coalition government?

AV: Don't over estimate constitutional power.The previous constitution had more human rights than ever but resulted in more abuses than ever by TRT.

There will not be many medium sized parties from now on, maybe none atall. Thailand is moving towards a two party state. [Re-iterates reasons why his coalition government will be stable].


End of questions. I get a couple of pictures with the man himself.

My verdict: Abhisit is slick, highly articulate and progressive. However it is easy to see why he does not appeal to certain Thais. He lacks that abrasive spark or traditional Thai political demeanour that some sections of Thailand go for. He also likes to talk technically - albeit with the usual vagueness of politicos - and that will simply turn some people off.

A good politician for sure, but one that will only appeal to middle or upper class Thais. A clear class division in Thailand is still evident in the people's political choices.

"Coup, Capital, Crown" . A report from the FCCT

My actual notes from last night's FCCT meeting. Everything is paraphrased and shorthanded for conciseness.


MC (Jonathon Head): "As a journalist, it's very frustrating not being able to discuss the monarchy, but we must respect the law and be restrained in what we say."

"His Majesty The King is now eighty , he will not be around forever. In private at least, Thai people are talking about the monarchy."

"Democracy, the military and the monarchy are deeply linked and we have four people who have contributed to two major works on this topic"



The panel are introduced:

- Professor Kevin Hewison, University of North Carolina;

- Professor Pasuk Phongpaichit of Chulalongkorn University;

- Dr Porphant Ouyyanont of Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University;

- Ukrist Pathmanand of Chulalongkorn University.

Each person speaks about one of the two books featured tonight. They are: "Thai Capital after the 1997 Crises" by Pasuk and Baker, and "Journal of Contemporary Asia Special: The Thailand Coup" edited by Kevin Hewison.

Kevin: The conservative agenda in Thailand is challenged and the heaviest challenge comes from the rural poor, hence Thaksin's immensely successful populist policies.

Porphan: CPB valuation in 2005 was twenty billion dollars in assets alone. This figure is likely to be higher now the dollar is weak. During the reign of Rama V, the CPB owned almost one third of land in Bangkok. Three quarters of the CPB wealth was lost in the crises but recovered for a variety of reasons (which he explains). The CPB was fully recovered by 2002 and stronger than ever.


Ukrit: Further confrontation between the "groups" involved on either side of the coup could be ahead due to the popularity of the PPP.


(My note: Porphant and Ukrist are like their boss Pasuk, down to earth, almost deprecatingly so. Nothing like most of the Thai high-so when they speak at the FCCT. I like these guys.)


Audience questions:

[My note: I have paraphrased all questions, some people love to ramble]


1) What is the difference between the King's personal wealth and the CPB?

Porphan: There is a separate office assigned to manage His Majesty's personal wealth. The CPB funds are funds for the whole institution of the monarchy.


2) a) Why have the AEC charges against Thaksin seemed to have little impact, why are there no new revelations of corruption? b) Some people say the NLA has been progressive, do the panel agree? (My note: I have not heard anyone say this)

a) Kevin: Probably because it was all so predictable, everybody got what they expected from the AEC.

b) Pasuk: The NLA is conservative with a few liberals thrown in as a bargaining tool to the people. Most powerful laws passed by the NLA have not been progressive or liberal



3) Is the CPB a Public limited company?

Poprphan: Its classification translates into English as "state unit" , however nobody on the panel- three scholars and an investigative journalist - knows what this means.

Pasuk: It has been established in court that CPB funds cannot be transferred by a court judgement.


4) Are some "old money" powerful families part of the think tank behind the coup?

Pasuk: One theory says that the military wanted to make a comeback and engaged the support if some business groups frozen out by Thaksin.

Ukrit: Certain figures like General Saprang were crucial to the legitimacy of the coup.

Kevin: Look at the financial data for Thailand. Pre - coup the biggest profit makes were in the telecom sector, such as the Thaksin owned Shin Corp. Post - coup, the biggest profiteers were those in the land and hosing sector. It is interesting to look at people such as Privy Council head General Prem and see where they have listed directorships.


5) What are your hopes and fears for the next eighteen months?

Pasuk: I hope PPP get a lot of seats simply to send a message to the military. However, I fear the coalition government will be weak and will collapse or be dissolved within one year. The possibility of violence cannot be ruled out.


6) Was Thaksin a threat to the monarchy?


Kevin: Yes. His economics - such as the use of SCB in the Shincorp sale - could be an issue. Also, Thaksin appealed to the same demographics in Thailand with a very different message: work your way into business and city life.(capitalism, compared to sufficiency economy)

7) Did the AEC fail?

Pasuk: Depends on what theory you believe. Theory one is that they want solid evidence to make a real case, so this takes time and they are working on it. Theory two, it was all just a show, a bargaining tool by the junta. To be fair, they have charged Thaksin's wife and children but has all gone remarkably quiet, which seems strange.


8) [I didn't understand the question. It concerned judges in Thailand]

Kevin: (Jokes about getting himself in trouble). It is strange that judges suddenly seem to have become eyed as saviours of the nation.


9) Is popular sovereignty on the rise?

Kevin: No. People in the north east are becoming purposely disenfranchised. Election campaigns are huge in Bangkok and nearby - where Abhisit is popular - and non existent in former TRT strongholds. The election will not progress democracy.

Pasuk: We do not want a regime that killed 2,500 people ("war on drugs" reference) but sadly more violence may be ahead.

MC: Based on personal interviews, rural people don't care about Samak but they think a PPP vote will bring Thaksin back.

Kevin: People should also consider the human rights record of Samak (it's poor).

MC: The VCD's of Thaksin are "very slick". Thaksin seems to be purposely copying the speaking style of the King and it is a powerful message that the rural folk are being exposed to in a campaign where the military have already attempted to disenfranchise rural voters.

Questions end, night is over but for the beers. Abhisit Vejajiva is here on Tuesday.

An interesting night at the FCCT and an article on the CPB

Thanks to fonzi and pundit for the heads up.

This Thursday at the FFCT promises to be interesting. In attendance are four authors, including my favourite Thai professor Pasuk Pongpaichit.

However, I would guess that some of the most interesting questions will be put to

Professor Kevin Hewison, University of North Carolina and Dr Porphant Ouyyanont of Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University;

For Hewison has just published a compilation of articles on the 2006 coup, including an article discussing CPB finances by Porphant. Porphant's article is discussed in this week's Asia Sentinel and provides a very frank analysis of CPB wealth.

It should be a most interesting night at the FCCT. Perhaps the most interesting night since the appearance of Sitthichai Pokaiudom who promised he had introduced new legislation ".....ensuring that MICT cannot block web sites alone, they need a court order to do so."

MICT blocked hi-haksin.net this week.