Random thoughts: PAD, UDD, the blogs and the future

I think it would be arrogant for any of us to pretend we have all the knowledge and all the answers for the ongoing political crisis. We all have our own questions, opinions and ideas.

I could write pages of my own, but it would probably end up a garbled, fragmented mess. So instead, I will simply brainstorm my own thoughts and opinions, and I invite others to do the same.


PAD

- Their professed goal (new politics) is a very good one. Sadly, their methods have disgraced them.

- The PAD used to be a good thing. The first anti-Thaksin protests were the right way to protest. Why did they change? Perhaps they knew they lacked support this time around, so they needed to be more aggressive.

- One of the key failings of the leaders is their failure to condemn violent attacks such as the man who purposely ran over the policemen…..

- …this has attracted violent thugs who care nothing for the country but just want an excuse to attack policemen and others. Again, we must ask why this has been allowed, and the answer seems to be that the PAD need the numbers.

- This could have been something special. The PAD could have protested peacefully outside the airports, parliaments etc. They could have made a party atmosphere, distributed leaflets and staged music shows, etc, that got the message across. They could have pushed so hard for changes. It may have taken longer but it would have gained more support.

- The PAD seem to have a bandwagon mentality. Suddenly unions, students and shop workers all jump up and “demand” the government resign, all the while trying to get their picture in the papers.

- Will the leaders flee Thailand after it’s all over? Surely any political clout they have has been crushed under the weight of their crimes. Sondhi and Chamlomg must realize that they are playing Russian Roulette with their lives now.

- This campaign must have been expensive. Who is paying? Surely not Sondhi, he admits he is broke.

- There have been innocent victims in all this, but let’s remember where real sympathy should go. Whilst it was wrong to vandalise the Chart Thai premises, do we really want to shed too many tears for an incompetent, corrupt, godfather brand of politicians who have never been anything but opportunists?

- Likewise, let's remember that we have the likes of Chalerm in government. This is not a group of all nice people.

- My wife;s business has suffered as a result of PAD protests.

- General Prem has often spoken out during times of trouble, yet he has remained very silent during all this.




UDAD / Pro-government protesters

- In the beginning, it seemed to be the pro-government groups that resorted to violence. That has changed. For the most part they have been peaceful and articulate and they deserve credit for this.

- It shouldn’t matter and it doesn’t matter, but it has been observed (please take a look as it took me a long time to dig up that link!) that there are differences between the attractiveness of pro and anti government protesters. Perhaps Lalidah, Pasninja and others can join UDAD to even the score? (Just kidding, guys!)

- Pro government groups have the democratic advantage but geography is not on their side. Most of them come from outside Bangkok.



Both sides

- Talk about compromise but seem unable.

- Should really grow up and stop prancing around with weapons they have no idea how to use.

- Profess they are the ones who “really” love the country.

- The army and the police have probably improved their image during all this.

- The army have shown great restraint (*but is it for the right reasons?)

- The police don’t have the best international image but they have also been restrained.

- However, the police appear to lack organization and perhaps don’t like having the spotlight on them so bright that they can’t bully people as they have been accused of in the past. However, this certainly does not excuse the violence against them.


The endgame

- I see no way out. I think there will be no coup but I do see a military offensive that can only cause bloodshed.

- But that is not the end. The power struggle will continue. There are still questions to be asked, tensions simmering and things that cannot be said.

- I hope I’m wrong, I hope somehow this works out but I think things will get worse before they get better.

- In the very long term, I’m sure Thailand will be OK. As I’ve said before, it’s easy to look at the UK and say we are “democratically mature” but that’s because we went through stuff like this centuries ago. We still have problems now, but we get by. So will Thailand, but I’m not sure if it will happen in my lifetime.

The truth about Thaksin's swipe at the UK

Thaksin’s interview in the Arabic media is remarkable for two reasons. First, he’s let his anger (some might call it arrogance) get the better of him again. Those who do not reside in Thailand might misconstrue his “feel sorrow” comment. I’m certain this is a face saving exercise for the former PM. Thaksin is used to being looked upon as a man of great power. He took a gamble by praising the UK as “democratically mature” during his asylum bid, the obvious intention was to send a message saying: “Look, democratic countries want me! That shows how badly I was treated in Thailand!”.

Therefore his cancelled visa no doubt caused a great loss of face to him. His jab at the UK was his measured yet angry response. The little snipe at Britain will receive far more press in Thailand than the UK, and can fool his followers into thinking Thaksin is as influential in England as he is at home. The reality, of course, is that the UK government really isn’t concerned at all. Thaksin is page seven news at best for most Brits.

The other remarkable fact about Thaksin’s interview is that he directly states he will return to politics and discusses conditions for his return. These conditions are very frank for a sensitive topic in Thailand.

But even in absentia the former PM’s aftermath is still being felt, as tensions rise by the minute in Bangkok.

Three reasons why the PAD protest has backfired

So I've finally found a "spot the difference" caption for Thai and UK politics.
Pictured above are members of the People's Alliance "for" Democracy. Their faces are covered as they smash their way into a TV station to protest against a democratically elected government. Also pictured are the Unite "Against" Fascism group as they force their way into Oxford Union to protest against the private Union's decision to invite certain people to a private debate.
The only difference between these groups is that the PAD were once a force for good.


Why have the PAD gone bad?

1) It has not achieved its stated objective.

The PAD has repeatedly stated its demands for Samak to resign, but the ogre-faced one is not only still there, he is actually increasing in terms of popularity. The other - unstated - goal of the PAD is to create so much fear and chaos that the army sweep in with another coup. But Anupong has kept close to Samak and there have been no signs of it happening.

2) Its fascist behaviour is losing it support.

The moment that some PAD members with covered faces smashed in the doors to NBT TV and stormed the station, people began to condemn the group. The violence and wish for bloodshed was becoming obvious.

On a personal note, the bandanna clad PAD members behaving like animals reminded me of the UAF in England during their protests at Oxford Union. The irony was obvious - a group that calls itself the 'People's Alliance for Democracy' behaving in a most undemocratic manner, and a group that calls itself 'Unite Against Fascism' behaving like fascists. Misnomers that are not lost on the public at large.



3) It is actually increasing the popularity and perceived independence of Samak Suntarajev.

Samak's calmness and patience during this fiasco is exactly what the PAD did not want. They wanted him to react angrily and threaten force, or start talking about Thaksin. His restraint has won him support. Even the Thai police have come through this looking good so far. You know you're doing badly if you make the Thai police look good. (I have permission to say that).


The PAD used this protest as a big 'final push', an all or nothing effort to oust the PPP regime. The plan so far has not worked and the increasing desperation and paranoia of the group is becoming obvious. Journalists being attacked and threats from Chamlong's scheduled replacement Panlop that "non peaceful means" will be used to resolve the situation if he takes over are a sure giveaway that the PAD want bloodshed to occur. It's their last chance.

But it is not over yet. It's a tense and intriguing situation. Sondhi and Chamlong still look genuinely relaxed and retain the support of some middle class Thais, senators and a small minority of officials and military. Rail unions have called a strike in a show of PAD support and the court have cancelled the eviction order. Samak is under huge pressure. But with Samak's decision to turn the protest into a war of attrition, it's hard to see how the PAD can come out on top unless the police lose patience and decide to move in and arrest the leaders. If that happens and the people fight back, there could be deaths and there could be a coup. For the sake of Thailand, let's hope that doesn't happen.

The last days of the PAD?

I guess most people have been in a situation where they hear an old friend or colleague has done something terrible/crazy/surprising and asked themselves "What was he thinking?".

I've never met Chamlong, but my wife has. Yet the same "What is he thinking?" moment has been bugging me this week following the actions of Chamlong and the PAD.

In his book "Chamlong Sriamuang and the New Thai Politics" Duncan McCargo argues that a study Chamlong's biography exposes a man who may have high ethical standards, but performs most of his political manoeuvres strictly in self interest.

I can't find any other reason for the fascist actions of the PAD this week. Storming a TV station and taking hostages and invading government house.

I've always argued that Chamlong's anti-corruption ethic makes his own self interests unimportant, he was good for Thai politics. But the actions of the PAD this week are based around a simple logic - if you don't like the democratically elected government, use force and intimidation to make them either resign or spark a coup. That is the undoubted thought process involved.

In the last few hours the courts have issued arrest warrants for he PAD leaders. Sonthi is considered the overall leader, he will need all his cash and business contacts just to avoid the death penalty. But Sonthi and the other leaders do not share the respect and (in some circles) public admiration Chamlong has.

Sriamuang has recently inferred that at his age, he doesn't have to worry about what happens to him. As I type this, the PAD leaders sit in the rain outside government house, daring the police to wade through the crowds and arrest them. It's a scene eerily reminiscent of 1992, but the crucial difference is that last time around, the majority of right thinking people supported Chamlong, this time around, they don't. What is he thinking?

Score one for the PAD

Source: gettyimages.com

Samak's comment that he would "disperse protesters with force ('if you want to try to resist, go ahead')" was a botch. Chamlong and co know well that the PM is famed for his temper and ill chosen words.

Chamlong responded to the threat by instructing PAD protesters (did I mention they are back on the streets?) to take cameras with them to the protest to capture any use of force for the world to see.

CNN reported it, and the PAD scored some propaganda points.

Samak left it to the equally charming Natthawut Saikua to spin it as "a tactical move, not a real threat"